bibo:abstract
  • In order to improve the CAT (clear-air turbulence) forecasts of KITFA (Korean Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm), analyses and forecast fields of 12 CAT diagnostics included in KITFA, in which 5-㎞ RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) forecasts routinely ingested, are analyzed in comparison with PIREPs reported in Korea for Spring 2002. The ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curves shown as the relationship between 1-PODn and PODy represent that NGM1, vertical shear (VWS), and the squared vorticy (Vor<TEX>$$t^2$$</TEX>) suggest somewhat meaningful statistics for detecting the turbulence potential area in the analysis fields. The areas under the ROC curves suggested that the significance of the CAT forecasts for the 12 indices decreased with lead times. Other statistical values such as FAR (False Alarm Ratio), Critical Success Index (CSI), and TSS (True Skill Statistics) for some specified thresholds of the indices suggest more validated statistics for the performance of the turbulence forecasts. Although the statistical results obtained by matching turbulence forecasts of the CAT diagnostics to the observations can be somewhat uncertain because of a limitation of the NWP model forecast and insufficient PIREPs, this intel-comparison exercise contributes not only for the improvement of the CAT forecast, but also for the robustness of the verification methods for the KITFA. (rdf:langString) (en)
  • 기상청의 5-㎞ 지역자료동화 및 예보시스템 (RDAPS) 자료가 자동으로 입력되는 한국형 통합 난류 예측 알고리즘 (KITFA)의 청천난류 예보를 개선하기 위하여 KITFA 내에 포함된 12개의 CAT 진단자들에 대한 분석 및 예보장을 2002년 봄에 국내에서 관측된 조종사보고 (PIREP)와 비교·분석하였다. 1-PODn와 PODy의 관계로 표현된 ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) 그래프로부터 NGM1과 연직시어 (VWS), 와도의 제곱 (Vor<TEX>$$t^2$$</TEX>)이 분석장에서 난류의 발생 가능 지역을 나타내는데 다소 나은 통계적 결과를 나타내었다. ROC 곡선 아래의 영역으로부터 12개 지수들의 청천난류 예보에 대한 중요성이 선행시간에 따라 감소함을 나타내었다. 12 지수들의 특정 임계값들에 대한 다른 통계값, 즉 FAR (False Alarm Ratio), Critical Success Index (CSI), and TSS (True Skill Statistics)은 난류 예보의 특성에 대해 보다 타당한 통계를 제시하였다. 수치예보모델의 한계와 부족한 조종사보고에 의해 청천난류 진단자들의 난류 예보와 관측을 비교로 구해진 통계가 다소 불확실하지만 이러한 비교 연구는 청천난류의 발전뿐만 아니라 KITFA의 검증 방법을 보다 확고히 하는 것에 기여할 것이다. (rdf:langString) (ko)
nlon:biographicalNote
  • Byoung-Cheol Choi, Applied Meteorological Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute (xsd:string)
  • Gerry Wiener, National Center for Atmospheric Research (xsd:string)
  • Hwa-Woon Lee, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan National University (xsd:string)
  • Robert Sharman, National Center for Atmospheric Research (xsd:string)
  • Young-Gon Lee, Applied Meteorological Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, yglee (rdf:langString) (metri.re.kr)
nlon:classificationNumberOfNLK
  • 453.05 (xsd:string)
nlon:containedIn
dc:creator
  • Choi, Byoungcheol (xsd:string)
  • Lee, Younggon (xsd:string)
  • Sharman, Robert (xsd:string)
  • Wiener, Gerry (xsd:string)
  • 이화운 (xsd:string)
dcterms:creator
nlon:datePublished
  • 2021-01-30T23:37:12 (xsd:dateTime)
dcterms:description
  • 한국의 청천난류(CAT)에 대한 주요 진단자 결정 (xsd:string)
bibframe:extent
  • 26 cm (xsd:string)
  • p. 677-688 (xsd:string)
dcterms:isPartOf
nlon:issuedYear
  • 2003 (xsd:string)
nlon:itemNumberOfNLK
  • 한465 (xsd:string)
rdfs:label
  • Determination of the primary diagnostics for the CAT (clear-air turbulence) forecast in Korea / Young-Gon Lee, Byoung-Cheol Choi,Robert Sharman,Gerry Wiener,Hwa-Woon Lee (xsd:string)
dcterms:language
dc:subject
  • CAT (xsd:string)
  • Clear-air turbulence (xsd:string)
  • KITFA (xsd:string)
  • Korean integrated turbulence forecasting algorithm (xsd:string)
  • PIREP (xsd:string)
  • Pilot report (xsd:string)
  • ROC curve (xsd:string)
  • ROC 곡선 (xsd:string)
  • Receiver operating characteristics curve (xsd:string)
  • Receiver operating characteristics 곡선 (xsd:string)
  • 조종사보고 (xsd:string)
  • 청천난류 (xsd:string)
  • 한국형 통합 난류 예측 알고리즘 (xsd:string)
dcterms:title
  • Determination of the primary diagnostics for the CAT (clear-air turbulence) forecast in Korea (xsd:string)
rdf:type
nlon:volumeOfNLK
  • 39(4)-39(6) (xsd:string)